Through representative empirical studies, we validate the superior performance of SAMoSSA compared to existing baselines.

Recent research has developed benchmarks for memory-augmented reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, providing Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) environments where agents depend on past observations to make decisions. While many benchmarks incorporate sufficiently complex real-world problems, they lack controllabil-ity over the degree of challenges posed to memory models. In contrast, synthetic environments enable fine-grained manipulation of dynamics, making them critical for detailed and rigorous evaluation of memory-augmented RL. Our study focuses on POMDP synthesis with three key contributions: 1. A theoretical framework for analyzing POMDPs, grounded in Memory Demand Structure (MDS), transition invariance, and related concepts; 2. A methodology leveraging linear process dynamics, state aggregation, and reward redistribution to construct customized POMDPs with predefined properties; 3. Empirically validated series of POMDP environments with increasing difficulty levels, designed based on our theoretical insights. Our work clarifies the challenges of memory-augmented RL in solving POMDPs, provides guidelines for analyzing and designing POMDP environments, and offers empirical support for selecting memory models in RL tasks.

The modeling and prediction of multivariate spatio-temporal data involve numerous challenges. Dimension reduction methods can significantly simplify this process, provided that they account for the complex dependencies between variables and across time and space. Nonlinear blind source separation has emerged as a promising approach, particularly following recent advances in identifiability results. Building on these developments, we introduce the identifiable autoregressive variational autoen-coder, which ensures the identifiability of latent components consisting of nonstationary autoregressive processes. The blind source separation efficacy of the proposed method is showcased through a simulation study, where it is compared against state-of-the-art methods, and the spatio-temporal prediction performance is evaluated against several competitors on air pollution and weather datasets.

Transformers have achieved state-of-the-art performance in language modeling tasks. However, the reasons behind their tremendous success are still unclear. In this paper, towards a better understanding, we train a Transformer model on a simple next token prediction task, where sequences are generated as a first-order autoregressive process $s_{t+1} = W s_t$. We show how a trained Transformer predicts the next token by first learning $W$ in-context, then applying a prediction mapping. We call the resulting procedure in-context autoregressive learning. More precisely, focusing on commuting orthogonal matrices $W$, we first show that a trained one-layer linear Transformer implements one step of gradient descent for the minimization of an inner objective function, when considering augmented tokens. When the tokens are not augmented, we characterize the global minima of a one-layer diagonal linear multi-head Transformer. Importantly, we exhibit orthogonality between heads and show that positional encoding captures trigonometric relations in the data. On the experimental side, we consider the general case of non-commuting orthogonal matrices and generalize our theoretical findings.

The well-established practice of time series analysis involves estimating deterministic, non-stationary trend and seasonality components followed by learning the residual stochastic, stationary components. Recently, it has been shown that one can learn the deterministic non-stationary components accurately using multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (mSSA) in the absence of a correlated stationary component; meanwhile, in the absence of deterministic non-stationary components, the Autoregressive (AR) stationary component can also be learnt readily, e.g. via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). However, a theoretical underpinning of multi-stage learning algorithms involving both deterministic and stationary components has been absent in the literature despite its pervasiveness. We resolve this open question by establishing desirable theoretical guarantees for a natural two-stage algorithm, where mSSA is first applied to estimate the non-stationary components despite the presence of a correlated stationary AR component, which is subsequently learned from the residual time series. We provide a finite-sample forecasting consistency bound for the proposed algorithm, SAMoSSA, which is data-driven and thus requires minimal parameter tuning. To establish theoretical guarantees, we overcome three hurdles: (i) we characterize the spectra of Page matrices of stable AR processes, thus extending the analysis of mSSA; (ii) we extend the analysis of AR process identification in the presence of arbitrary bounded perturbations; (iii) we characterize the out-of-sample or forecasting error, as opposed to solely considering model identification. Through representative empirical studies, we validate the superior performance of SAMoSSA compared to existing baselines. Notably, SAMoSSA's ability to account for AR noise structure yields improvements ranging from 5% to 37% across various benchmark datasets.